Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 21.139501 23.078855 25.235427 27.836137 30.921868 34.511770 39.074518
2025-01-19 18.918693 21.608532 24.850324 29.145739 34.856670 42.468627 53.946557
2025-01-26 16.775304 19.745016 23.527163 28.895144 36.701094 48.403846 69.273282
2025-02-02 15.342083 18.490930 22.683625 28.990484 38.931762 55.654570 91.608473
2025-02-09 14.298121 17.571994 22.096872 29.258062 41.418933 64.381078 125.722805
2025-02-16 13.413077 16.743646 21.488727 29.326618 43.544305 73.539034 176.039369
2025-02-23 12.583844 15.895694 20.725451 28.977622 44.784354 81.586548 245.174442
2025-03-02 11.971997 15.295343 20.252558 29.011620 46.759163 92.863227 388.523943
2025-03-09 11.391192 14.685961 19.691021 28.783282 48.115262 103.682041 666.071664
2025-03-16 10.875739 14.131551 19.156504 28.512013 49.300919 115.304521 1427.264906
2025-03-23 10.420845 13.634915 18.666354 28.245872 50.432212 128.295047 6391.830893
2025-03-30 10.036197 13.219470 18.271481 28.103722 51.848479 144.786397 NaN
2025-04-06 9.593490 12.693557 17.659691 27.472510 51.883362 155.673384 NaN
2025-04-13 9.480007 12.678782 17.918991 28.663910 57.477697 212.390893 NaN
2025-04-20 9.151811 12.299776 17.509953 28.379962 58.614213 243.799377 NaN
2025-04-27 8.901644 12.032774 17.278654 28.453856 60.977650 299.663811 NaN
2025-05-04 8.694638 11.824160 17.135132 28.704442 64.107189 391.899614 NaN
2025-05-11 8.478367 11.588216 16.922933 28.766816 66.644839 513.837002 NaN
2025-05-18 8.227739 11.282744 16.560591 28.427103 67.537790 628.483567 NaN
2025-05-25 8.038615 11.071741 16.361516 28.459187 70.028809 895.153408 NaN
2025-06-01 7.832437 10.822588 16.073963 28.237720 71.392854 1244.673601 NaN
2025-06-08 7.634369 10.579076 15.782859 27.974848 72.517356 1824.100475 NaN
2025-06-15 7.448556 10.349261 15.505314 27.716986 73.615479 3003.318756 NaN